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Japan should join North Korea’s denuclearization as a Hibaku country by the advocacy of “International Treaty of North East Asia Friend Cooperation”
<結び>【書評】米朝首脳会談後の世界 柳澤協二・太田昌克・富澤暉・今村弘子共著

After the U.S.-North Korea Summit―the praise for the U.S. president Donald Trump have been big Changing to “Failure” evaluation. before the second U.S.―North Korea Summit, North Korea leader Kim Jong-Un absolutely never have stopped nuclear development. The Second Summit has the possibility for China Communist Party president Xi Jing-Pin and South Korea president Moon Jain to participate. Can Japan also take part in Korea Peninsula’s denuclearization as a Hibaku Country by the advocacy of “ International Treaty of North East Asia Friend Cooperation”?


Trump administration shifts to FFVD


After July, The U.S. change “Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible Denuclearization: CVID” which wasn’t incorporated into the U.S.-North Korea joint statement to “Final Fully Verified Denuclearization: FFVD” whose the permission of step by step denuclearization Policy.
But 3 August, the United Nation investigative inside document Reiter got and 20 August,
IAEA’s mid-term verification document concerned on North Korea’s nuclear activity, both of that disclosure “North Korea has kept nuclear development at the Nyonbyon nuclear facility ”
Owe the North Korea’s b betrayal to oil transfer ship sanction against North Korea.
All Washington’s nuclear analysts almost are sure that Kim Jong-Un never abolish nuclear.

(Complete,Verifiable,Irreversible Denuclearization:CVID)」に代わり「最終的に完全で検証された非核化(Final, Fully Verified Denuclearization : FFVD)」という段階的非核化の方針容認へと舵を切った。

As a nuclear expert, Masakatsu Ota, Kyodo Correspondent editor, points out problems concerning “at 6.12 Summit, during keeping the U.S.―North Korea dialogue, Trump didn’t ask Kim for stopping all Nyonbyon nuclear activity ” as a compensate for suspending the U.S,―South Korea Joint military drill.


Moreover, Ota pointed out Trump administration doesn’t use the expression “CVID” .
“”CVID” is security for the disarmament 3 basic rule which are ”the rule of Irreversible” and ”Verifiable”, ”transparency”. CVID is in 2002, the 1994 U.S.-North Korea agreed framework was collapsed and in 2003 George W Bush administration started to use expression against North Korea. The connotation was “general yield and abolish nuclear. Trump administration also started to say the destiny CVID. So North Korea disliked that. Add to John Bolton, national security president secretary assistant who was appointed in Bush administration experienced to succeed Libya model. Bolton has the career of the hard―hawk asked for abolishing nuclear weapon one-sidedly. The speculate for North Korea? The U.S. stopped to use the historical finger marked word “CVID” and change to use “FFVD”? and then the background is South Korea’s advise. Using the words “Verifiable” ,”Fully” and “Final” means the diplomatic Rhetoric to say in the round around way of “CVID”. By this expression the U.S. and South Korea thought both countries can save face of North Korea.”


Ota reflected on 6.12 and pointed out “while Trump has been kept dialogue with Kim, Trump announced suspension of the U.S. and South Korea Joint Military drill without consulting with the U.S. ally, South Korea before Trump decision. Therefore that also impacted Japanese government .
Such a posing equal with comparing the U.S. monetary profit with alliance national security merit and demerit. After Trump fired Steven Bannon, White House Chief Strategist, the part of foreign diplomatic policy “moral realism” Trump administration launched. we have a glimpse of this foreign policy “moral realism”.


Akio Takahata , Hakuou University managements professor(International relations)pointed out Trump diplomacy’s “moral realism” following.
“President Trump’s national security strategy revolved “peace through strength”. it was taken over from 1980’s Ronald Reagan administration and taken into “moral realism”. Trump administration maintained maximum pressure against North Korea and left Iran nuclear agreement. It is not enough only nuclear agreement to Iran which have been developing not only nuclear weapons but also sending other countries armed militia and developing long range missiles. To the U.S., Iran is the supporter country of terrorism for Lebanon and Syria. if other countries or terrorism makes the U.S. been angry, “Anytime the U.S. can use of force.” Trump air strike Syria tomahawk missile before Chinese president Xi Jing Ping’s eyes during Xi having pleasant talk with Trump to have pressured Xi at the mar a lago. That’s “moral realism”.”
According to Takahata, “moral realism ” defines to maximize the national profit of the mission “America first” and reject George W Bush administration’s idealism Bush to spread the world freedom and democracy and justify to break out Iraq war. Simultaneously not tuning with Obama administration’s realism to ignore moral and rule and to have approached Iran and Cuba.
The way of achievement is to save using more necessary than military, financial and human resource. That’s realism and gradual.

 白鴎大学の高畑昭男教授(国際関係論)は「道義的現実主義」のトランプ外交について次のように指摘する。「トランプ大統領  の国家安全保障戦略は『力による平和(peace through strength)』に回帰した。1980年代のロナルド・レーガン政権時から引き継いで道義的現実主義に取り入れられた。トランプ政権は北朝鮮に対し最大限の圧力を維持し、イランの核合意からも離脱した。核兵器以外にも他国に武装勢力を送り込んだり、長距離ミサイルの開発を続けるイランには核合意だけでは不十分だということだ。米国にとってイランはレバノン、シリアのテロ支援国でもある。理不尽な行動を取って米国を怒らせると『いつでも力を発揮できる』と、マール・ア・ラーゴの別荘で談笑中の中国の習近平国家主席の眼前で『シリアにトマホークミサイルを撃ち込んだ』と圧力をかけた。それが『道義的現実主義』だ」。

Complete North Korea pace


In one hand, North Korea leader Kim is a tough diplomacy player.
Kim John Un administration replaced top army uniform executives boast to start “revolution of education science”. By ”concentration on the economy line” diplomacy Kim launched, North Korea built special economic zone along boundary line with China. Agreed with South Korea and Russia to cooperate research development and promote the project of developing power supplier line.
While Chinese Xi administration have been disputing trade war with Trump administration, Kim asked Xi for assistance and used South Korea to reset the U.S.-North Korea diplomacy for the purpose.
According to North Korea’ s road map, the next step is to involve Trump administration as the countries directly concerned, in declaration the end of Chosen war metaphysically for Internal Korea’s permanent peace.
If Kim have the countries directly concerned (them) in his pocket, Completely North Korea’s pace.


17 August, at a certain place, Tokyo-to, the representative of “the Meeting to make use of Japanese Self Defense Force(JSDF)”, Kyouji Yanagisawa who gave a lecture, “the U.S.-China imposing tariffs dispute mutually maintain to consider China’s Alert which has been spread in the U.S. with consciousness of the U.S. mid-term election. Both of the countries‘impose is the factor of breaking out the war when the order maintaining country has the fear to takeover the country’s self order. During the savage opposition toward the U.S. and China trade dispute, the U.S. has been expanding “Freedom of Navigation Operation” aimed for defending to expand the Chinese hegemony in the South China Sea. But the U.S. and China can’t conflict in the South China sea directly. if armed conflict breaks out, Taiwan is higher risk rather than that. ”


Yanagisawa pointed out.“In one hand, Trump administration criticizes China to call “revisionist power” in the U.S. national security strategy. The other hand, it is written clearly “the providing necessary legal defense force” about the relationship with Taiwan.
This June, the U.S. opened the contact organization toward Taiwan, American Institute in Taiwan(AIT) Taipei office. China which has the ambitious of “the Taiwan unification in China”, if Trump Administration will be emergency situation to dispatch the Marine Corps, that will lead the war.
But Yanagisawa pointed out “the Both of the U.S. and China are calm because the opposition doesn’t effect on North Korea problem. China doesn’t say “China doesn’t cooperate the U.S,-North Korea’s denuclearization.” That isn’t directly trigger of the war.”
Yanagisawa repeatedly have said “the war won’t break out ” to defend misleading the public opinion since ” “the Meeting to make use of JSDF” symposium last year.


Diplomatic resolution by “International Treaty of North East Asia Friend Cooperation”


To tell you truth, feeling the most risk of the U.S.-North Korea nuclear war crisis was China President Xi Jing Pin. As “the treaty between China and North Korea of friendship, cooperation and assistance” article 2 “the rights to collective defense” means ”Automatic participation in a war article”, About last July, “prepare for nuclear war” ”wash away radiation by shower” vivid run the article on “Jilin daily report”. It was serious crisis situation that China President ordered that PLA were posted the boundary between North China and North Korea to prepare for battle.
But Yanagisawa who stared fixedly at after 6.12, pointed out “As North Korea which never obey Soviet and China, has legitimacy, it is difficult for” the U.S. and North Korea to conclude a treaty of security pact” because that means North Korea is contained under the Chinese nuclear umbrella.”


Moreover Yanagisawa gave frank advise “ There is “the end of the war model” surrounded the U.S. , North Korea, China and South Korea as the countries directly concerned, International society like Japan, Russia and ASEAN outside a framework. There are problems like abductee and colonial rule settlement Bilateral between Japan and North Korea. But Abe administration doesn’t have the strategy which decides to distinguish priority of “abductee, nuclear and missile.” The problem is Japan and North Korea doesn’t have diplomatic channel. Although North Korea is tough, Japan must revise to recognize that North Korea is proper diplomatic negotiation partner.”


But Kim refused the invitation of “East Economic Forum” Russia President Vladimir Putin hosted at Vladivostok for September 11 to 13 and Kim went to Internal Korea Summit at Pyongyang for September 18 to 20. Considering Kim schedule, Kim could go to Vladivostok.
Kim may thought North Korea didn’t have a lot merit of economic cooperation from Russia. Then Kim didn’t rely Putin. Therefore Russia and North Korea Summit never hold after 6.12.
Putin irritated because of that.
So automatically the possibility of realizing Japan and North Korea Summit disappeared. Then resolution of abductee problem and A bomb victim residing in North Korea problem were postponed.


“If denuclearization progresses and the declare of the end of Chosen war. Or if opposite to the relationship of the U.S. and North Korea is getting worse, the chance that the relationship
North Korea and Japan is revised, will be able to come.” Above mentioned Takahata pointed out.
Japan has the assailant history. But simultaneously Japan and North Korea can share, Hibakusha in Japan and both Korea“aggrieved experience” the U.S. fell down A-bomb.
Takahata proposed fresh proposal “If outside framework of “Chosen war ” the countries directly concerned, add to Russia as peace agreement framework and Japan join that as Hibaku country, separately from framework of “Chosen war ” the countries directly concerned(them), I think one idea for example, six party put “International Treaty of North East Asia Friend Cooperation” together. During Six party talks(2003〜2014), Secretary of State (Bush administration)Condoleezza Rice implemented such an idea.”


As Hibaku country, don’t give North Korea Fuel Cycle technology


Japan is great related with dismantlement of U.N. army in Korea peninsula North Korea demand. the host country which play role of logistical support base is Japan which has U.S. Forces in Yokota Japan base. North Korea’s aim is not only “the Declaration of the end of war”
And withdrawal of U.S. Forces Korea(USFK), but also denuclearization of U.S. Airplane and Fleet which landed on USFK. When Chosen war broke out, USFJ attacked from Iwakuni base,
Japan Economically reconciliated. Japan can’t regard Chosen peninsula warfare as something. If the dismantlement of U.N. army actually arise, instead of USFK, USFJ can substitute to maintain the U.S. extended restraint theory . if that realize, CVIG North Korea demands means less value.


But According to “FY 2019 U.S. State of Defense Budget Major Weapons Programs” and “Nuclear Modernization FY 2019 Funding(DoD Funding only)($in billion), SLBM ”Trident Ⅱ”doesn’t change President’s Budget request $1.2 billion compared 2018.
Pentagon and NNSA add to development and deploy New nuclear forces are following 2 points.

①Low Explosive Power Submarine launched ballistic missile(SLBM) which provide “rapid reaction option” to enable to break defense network.
②Sea Launched Cruise Missile(SLCM)which enable “non strategic regional development” and guarantees “certain reaction ability”.

だが、米国防総省「概算会計2019年度 米国防予算主要兵器」及び「核兵器の近代化会計2019年度投資額 (DoD投資のみ) ($10億)」を読むと、SLBM海上巡航ミサイル「TridentⅡ」は2019年度も前年度に比べ不変動の米大統領軍事予算要求12億ドルが組まれている。米国防総省とエネルギー省国家核安全保障局(NNSA)が今後数年内に追加開発・配備する新たな核戦力には次の2点があるとされる。


Nagasaki University Research center for nuclear weapon abolition(RECNA) director, Tatsujirou Suzuki said “denuclearization of Chosen Peninsula which has been vague till now,must be verified whether USFK base has nuclear weapon or not. the U.S. said “withdraw all nuclear”. but Nuclear third party liability(TPL) doesn’t match to confirm. Though USFJ is of course Japan-the U.S. official statement “no existence of nuclear” , if U.S. pentagon decide officially to setup cruise missile etc… like SLBM TridentⅡinstalled submarine, it is possibility for USFJ will bring Sasebo or Yokosuka bases.”


And then Suzuki also said how to denuclearize Korea Peninsula and principle of verify.
“If “Northeast Asia Denuclearize Area” realize, first of all, making verification system enable to verify North Korea and South Korea mutually. If unless there is Treaty, As Denuclearization of Korea peninsula needs North Korea and South Korea bilateral mutually verifiable system, the Brazilian-Argentine Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials(ABACC) discussion can be referred.
Example for building the system that North Korean experts visit South Korea to verify, South Korea experts visit North Korea to verify mutually. verification of North Korea’s dismantlement of nuclear should examine how does U.N. special inspectors’ investigation team including nuclear state experts inspect without disclosure of a secret of careful know-how.”
Moreover “Waiting for the negotiation of “Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT)”’s inspection discussion also can be referred. FMCT is that nuclear states need “declaration” of total nuclear stockpile, past productive facilities operation data and all productive and use data. And they also need inspection system not to produce more than nuclear materials that’s can appropriate North Korea this time case.” Suzuki said.


In addition, after North Korea dismantles nuclear weapon, in the next step “use nuclear power for peace”” if Japanese government promote North Korea to use nuclear power for peace, Japan can support nuclear power technology.” Suzuki described.
But “If North Korea demand Japan ENR technology example for Enriched Uranium and Nuclear Fuel Cycle technology etc…, Japan should refuse that. If North Korea demand Japan Light Water Reactor, Same as Japan can support nuclear technology, but never accompany with nuclear fuel cycle technology. In future, Because that is for preventing North Korea from making bad use Japanese technology. If Japan will prevent North Korea from using real plutonium, of course Japan never give North Korea “FBR” technology. First of all, that Japan cooperate to enable once through spent nuclear fuel in Light Water Reactor is better.


Stare fixedly The second the US.-North Korea Summit


Above mentioned Ota advocate.“Japan is directly countries concerned of ”cease fire agreement”. But Japanese idea can be put in from out of framework. How does Northeast Asia including Japan build totally peace and stability? Japan must join drawing strategic big picture. The meaning needs Japanese Hibaku country unique initiative. From Japanese experience of nuclear ravages, Japan neither permit North Korea possess nuclear weapon nor permit to use nuclear in Northeast Asia. Japan must continue to say that for Japanese responsibility as a Hibaku country. Example for, Japan should strongly promote North Korea to join CTBT and cooperate technology to realize denuclearization. Although CTBT hasn’t come effect yet, “CTBTO” Executive Secretary Lassina Zerbo leading, makes nuclear test cite inspected whether it is really closed or not, such an option is also one plan. Japan supports necessary cost for denuclearization with the U.S. and South Korea. That’s never pay North Korea ‘s consideration behavior, but it is the concept for Japan to pay Northeast Asia’s national security’s cost”
11 September, Bolton announced “White House is adjusting the Second the U.S.-North Korea Summit will hold plan.”
On that Ota predicted “Nuclear plan’s declaration and denuclearization’s roadmap, and then the end of the war between related country’s Top will be the prime discussion issue. The other hand , if the Second Summit held before the U.S. mid-term election, to freeze to launch and abolish ICBM near future, may be come up for discussion by Trump who strongly conscious the U.S. voters,”


<結び>【書評】米朝首脳会談後の世界 柳澤協二・太田昌克・富澤暉・今村弘子共著




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